Introduction
From time to time concerns are raised about the pace of change and society's ability to adapt. For example Ray Kurzweil and Chris Meyer argued in 2003, that "the 21st Century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today's rate of progress". Many, if not most of "futurists" believe that the rate of change is accelerating. One major of opponent of this view is Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern. He argues that the there was a era of above normal economic growth from 1920 to 1970, and the decline in productivity since then is one of the reasons incomes have been stagnant.
This blog outlines why Gordon may be right.
My Dad and I
While hardly scientific, I tested the Gordon hypothesis by comparing the first 40 years of my father's life with mine. These lists are somewhat subjective, and you could come up with a different list. My dad grew up in the northern plains, so some of these innovations came to his hometown after it was available in most parts of the country.
There is also a 10 year overlap in our lifespans from 1959-1969.
Innovations 1929-1969
- Electricity
- Mainframe computers
- Indoor plumbing
- Washing machines
- Central heating
- Central air conditioning
- Chemical fertilizers and hybrid seeds
- Penicillin/antibiotics
- Telephones
- Radio
- Television
- Vaccines especially polio
- Organ transplants
- Jet travel
- Tractors
- Automatic milkers-first truly available in 1922, but not widely adopted until later
- Microwave oven
- Chemotherapy
- Improved medical diagnostics (MRIs etc.)
- Personal computers
- The internet
Clearly the innovations from 1929 to 1969 were greater than those from 1959 to 1999. One later innovation, genetic engineering, is not included because it may be rejected by society.
During this time most of the innovations improved. For example, the late 1990s saw the development of the cell phone, and the 1980s saw the development of cable TV. Nonetheless, these are evolutionary as opposed to revolutionary changes. In the case of jet travel, performance has probably declined despite the improvements in air safety.
The computer and the internet are particularly interesting. For most people, the computer is a glorified typewriter (word processor) and adding machine (spreadsheets), files saved on a drive replaced filing cabinets. The internet can be used as a library for those who know how to do so. So while the personal computer has dramatically improved productivity, it is less of a new thing as opposed to a set of improvements on previous ways of doing things.
The development social networking, and smart phones may or may not enhance productivity and economic growth. While the potential is there, so is the potential for these innovations to waste time and share ignorance. The same is true of the internet.
Predicting the future is difficult and no one has perfect foresight. It may be the case that AI, big data, and robotics will usher in a new era of rapid change, but it would have to be a massive change to match that of the first 60 years of the 20th Century. Another reason to value the accomplishments of your parents and grandparents.
