"A Person is Entitled to Their Opinions but the Facts Belong to Everyone" - Don Paarlberg
I first heard about global warming in the mid 1980s in a book with the captivating title "The Future of the North American Granary." In fact theoretical discussions of the possibility of greenhouse gases causing global warming go back until at least the 1950s if not sooner. At that time one of the debates was whether particulate pollution would cause global cooling or if the accumulation of CO2 would raise temperatures. The answer is that the planet is warming, and precipitation patterns are changing. We are increasingly living in a world with fewer but stronger storms. Also, with some exceptions it appears that the dry regions are getting drier and the wetter regions are getting wetter.
Despite what you may have heard, the world is not running out of water. While climate change is impacting some aquifers and water basins, and the water cycle may be accelerating, the total amount of global precipitation is virtually identical from year to year. If anything rising sea levels will lead to more precipitation.
It is almost certain that in the future sea levels will rise and will become more acidic. This will reduce the productivity of the oceans and will pressure populations that live in coastal areas. In other words there is a very good probability that there will be climate refugees in the future, especially from island states in the Pacific, and perhaps from countries with major river deltas such as Bangladesh. Mosquito borne diseases will likely become more common, as the range of some species expand, and there is less winter kill off. People living in major cities in the West may need to move a few miles inland or adapt buildings that can withstand higher sea levels.
How the West responds to these refugees will be one of the biggest issues facing developed economies in the next few decades. One positive aspect of this fact is that the world has time to adjust and handle these refugees if it embraces the bleakness. However, most nations individually only manage emergencies.
It wasn't always like this. There are at least two examples of environmental policies that effectively addressed major problems. The first was the Montreal Protocol, which banned chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons that were creating a hole in the ozone layer. Since then the hole has become increasingly small.
The second is the cap and trade program that effectively reduced the generation of sulfur dioxide, the primary source of acid rain. Since this policy was enacted, the health of forests and lakes have improved downwind of major sources of acid rain.
These two policies indicate some two important realities. The first is that positive action is possible. The second is that the environment and the planet is more resilient and self-healing than environmental activists are willing to admit.
Another major concern involves agricultural productivity. Some areas will be adversely impacted; of the major food exporters, Australia appears to be particularly adversely impacted by climate change. In addition to warmer temperatures, Australia appears to more more susceptible to both droughts and flooding. Fruit growing regions in the Midwest and Northeast parts of the U.S. and Canada may face additional pest pressure and the impact of warmer weather followed by frosts, which will kill premature blossoms.
Other parts of the world should see higher productivity. This includes the Prairies of Canada and the Northern plains of the U.S., although this region, especially the Red River Valley of the North faces considerable flooding potential. Areas such as Ukraine and Russia also stand to generate increased crop production resulting from climate change. As a result the net effect of climate change of crop production is difficult to determine at this point.
Environmentalists also decry animal food production as not being sustainable. Perhaps some methods of raising animals are, but it is difficult to understand how traditional pasture based systems that have been used for thousands of years would have a major impact on the environment.
It should be noted that if climate change is a threat to life on earth there are several potential technical methods to address it. One is through the use of geoengineering; increasing cloud cover, developing ways for the oceans to capture more carbon or to reflect more light back into the atmosphere are examples. Genetic engineering could be used to develop crop varieties that drought resistant, heat resistant, and use fewer purchased inputs such as nitrogen fertilizer. One of the great frustrations in dealing with climate change is that many of advocates of the dangers of climate change are opponents of methods to reduce its impacts.
Climate change is real and the faster policies and technologies are put in place to address it, the smaller the impact will be. However, the inability of climate change deniers and climate change activists to embrace the bleakness, likely makes the future impacts worse that they would otherwise be.
Despite what you may have heard, the world is not running out of water. While climate change is impacting some aquifers and water basins, and the water cycle may be accelerating, the total amount of global precipitation is virtually identical from year to year. If anything rising sea levels will lead to more precipitation.
It is almost certain that in the future sea levels will rise and will become more acidic. This will reduce the productivity of the oceans and will pressure populations that live in coastal areas. In other words there is a very good probability that there will be climate refugees in the future, especially from island states in the Pacific, and perhaps from countries with major river deltas such as Bangladesh. Mosquito borne diseases will likely become more common, as the range of some species expand, and there is less winter kill off. People living in major cities in the West may need to move a few miles inland or adapt buildings that can withstand higher sea levels.
How the West responds to these refugees will be one of the biggest issues facing developed economies in the next few decades. One positive aspect of this fact is that the world has time to adjust and handle these refugees if it embraces the bleakness. However, most nations individually only manage emergencies.
The Current State of Climate Change Debate
It wasn't always like this. There are at least two examples of environmental policies that effectively addressed major problems. The first was the Montreal Protocol, which banned chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons that were creating a hole in the ozone layer. Since then the hole has become increasingly small.
The second is the cap and trade program that effectively reduced the generation of sulfur dioxide, the primary source of acid rain. Since this policy was enacted, the health of forests and lakes have improved downwind of major sources of acid rain.
These two policies indicate some two important realities. The first is that positive action is possible. The second is that the environment and the planet is more resilient and self-healing than environmental activists are willing to admit.
Another major concern involves agricultural productivity. Some areas will be adversely impacted; of the major food exporters, Australia appears to be particularly adversely impacted by climate change. In addition to warmer temperatures, Australia appears to more more susceptible to both droughts and flooding. Fruit growing regions in the Midwest and Northeast parts of the U.S. and Canada may face additional pest pressure and the impact of warmer weather followed by frosts, which will kill premature blossoms.
Other parts of the world should see higher productivity. This includes the Prairies of Canada and the Northern plains of the U.S., although this region, especially the Red River Valley of the North faces considerable flooding potential. Areas such as Ukraine and Russia also stand to generate increased crop production resulting from climate change. As a result the net effect of climate change of crop production is difficult to determine at this point.
Environmentalists also decry animal food production as not being sustainable. Perhaps some methods of raising animals are, but it is difficult to understand how traditional pasture based systems that have been used for thousands of years would have a major impact on the environment.
It should be noted that if climate change is a threat to life on earth there are several potential technical methods to address it. One is through the use of geoengineering; increasing cloud cover, developing ways for the oceans to capture more carbon or to reflect more light back into the atmosphere are examples. Genetic engineering could be used to develop crop varieties that drought resistant, heat resistant, and use fewer purchased inputs such as nitrogen fertilizer. One of the great frustrations in dealing with climate change is that many of advocates of the dangers of climate change are opponents of methods to reduce its impacts.
Climate change is real and the faster policies and technologies are put in place to address it, the smaller the impact will be. However, the inability of climate change deniers and climate change activists to embrace the bleakness, likely makes the future impacts worse that they would otherwise be.
